We set out from Valdez for a day-long cruise into Prince William Sound on the Lulu Belle (highly recommended if you’re there). It was a beautiful day, crisp and cold – just like how I enjoy July, when we came upon these guys sunning themselves on a classic “Alaskan Beach”. They looked at the crazy humans bundled up, then just rolled over and dived into the brisk water.
Archives for August 2018
I’ve written before about the hype around AI, where there’s lots of potential, a ton of smoke and mirrors, and a few real things. Blockchain is right there contending for the king of the mountain. So what’s real, what’s hype, what’s plain dumb, and what isn’t anyone really talking about?
I’m going to assume that you already have a working knowledge of blockchain – that it’s a digital ledger that records transactions in a distributed manner using cryptographic mathematics. Fundamentally it’s focused on protecting integrity – non-repudiation, with a secondary nod to availability (due to the potential for running on a distributed network). Confidentiality is always an add-on – you can previously encrypt content on the entries, but blockchain itself doesn’t provide that capability. Anonymity is a common feature, but again, not a fundamental part of the design. Blockchain is only one small component in an overall solution – it solves one problem well, but it’s not a magic bean.
There are very real use cases for blockchain. The most common are cryptocurrencies – bitcoin and so forth. Just remember that cryptocurrencies use blockchain, but blockchain is not a cryptocurrency. I’m not a fan of cryptocurrencies as an investment since they fundamentally aren’t tied to any form of goods or services – to be fair, most modern currencies aren’t either, yet ‘full faith and credit of the united states’ is more sound than ‘investor interest in owning it’. Still, using cryptocurrencies for payments is a practical use case (setting aside speculators) – in particular, I see them replacing traditional wire transfers as a lower cost and more competitive option. But I don’t see blockchain replacing traditional currency anytime soon, as it’s not currently possible to apply nation-state level monetary policy, and particularly changing the supply of money, using a cryptocurrency with a fixed potential.
Using blockchain ledgers for bills of lading has the potential to transform the transit industry and greatly reduce overhead costs. In a similar fashion, using them to track authentic parts across supply chains to reduce counterfeit parts (and provide instant paperwork for things like airplane repairs), is a transformative capability. Financial services is the other industry that’s furthest along, where they’re looking at blockchain ledgers for both internal transactions as well as interbank transfers.
The worst use case is for voting. Blockchain, by itself, only provides a record of a vote. It does nothing to ensure that the right person voted, or that they only voted once. It doesn’t provide a voter-verifiable audit trail of how they voted, and relies far too much on fallible software to provide those other services. The hype is far out of whack with the risk, and that experiment is grossly ill-conceived – there is currently no secure way to vote electronically. Full stop. As I’ve written before, the only secure method presently available is to validate voter identity against registration, then either provide the person with a paper ballot that they mark and validate, or use an isolated system that prints a paper ballot from user choices that they can validate after printing, and finally use a separate system to tabulate the votes – or worst case, use a hand count of those paper ballots. That system minimizes the technology involved, and the official record is on durable paper.
But here’s the thing that no one’s really talking about. What happens if the math breaks? We’re seeing that with hash functions, and while there’s no real threat to the encryption algorithms today, attacks always get better. Plus quantum (I probably need another post about that hype) is on the horizon. That’s the security guy in me, I’m always looking for how things break. As we do roll out blockchain, are we building in safeguards against a fundamental compromise in the math? In most cases not. To be fair, the current processes have vulnerabilities in integrity as well – particularly from an internal conspiracy, and blockchain would make that much more difficult. But it is something to think about.
In the end, when you hear someone talk breathlessly about blockchain, get out your paper bag and help them stop hyperventilating. It is being used, and it has solid potential, but only as one component in an overall solution.
As I started getting more serious about taking photographs, I started geotagging them so I could both return to the site and remember where it was! This image is from somewhere on the North shore of Oahu. As I recall there’d been a rainstorm that morning, and the waters were turbulent and muddy. The flower perfectly captured that trip – life was turbulent, yet the time in Hawaii was completely relaxed and serene.